气候变化条件下红脂大小蠹在中国的潜在适生区预测

Predicting the potential distribution in China of Dendroctonus valens Leconte

红脂大小蠹作为一种国际性重大林业害虫,传入我国后,立即成为油松的致命性害虫并迅速在我国扩散开来。本研究利用中国历史气候数据(1981-2010年)和未来气候数据(2011-2040年),以CLIMEX软件和红脂大小蠹的生物学特性资料为理论依据,分析、预测、比较在历史气候条件下和未来气候条件下红脂大小蠹在中国的气候适生区。结果表明:在历史和未来气候条件下,红脂大小蠹的适生区域均集中在我国南方和华北地区,高度适生区所占比例最大。而在未来气候变暖条件下,由于各地的气候条件将发生变化,红脂大小蠹的适生区将向西北和东北方向扩增。研究表明气候变化会对红脂大小蠹的适生区有一定的影响,会导致其适生范围变大,适生边界北移,大部分地区适生程度增大。研究结果可为未来红脂大小蠹在我国的检疫防控、控制其扩散暴发提供一定的理论依据。

As an international major forestry pest,Dendroctonus valens immediately became the lethality of Pinus tabulaeformis pests and quickly spread in China since its introduction to China.This study applied Chinese historical climate data(1981-2010)and the simulated future climate data(2011-2040),treated the biological information of the pest as the theoretical basis,used CLIMEX software to analyze,predict,compare the climatic potential distribution for D.valens under historical and future climate in China.The results showed that the potential distribution of the pest under two climate conditions are concentrated in the South and Huabei China region,and the area of the highly favourable habitat is largest.While under the future climate condition,because of the climate will change in every regions,the range of the potential distribution will expand to the Northeast and Northwest of China.These results help to clarify that climate change will have a certain effect on the potential distribution for the pest,which results in the expansion of potential distribution area and movement of the boundary towards north;meanwhile,suitable degree of survive in most areas raises accordingly.This study could provide a reference and guide to facilitate its control in China.