威胁评估与美国大战略的转变

Threat Assessment and the Transformation of America's Grand Strategy

美国是如何评估外部威胁的?威胁评估如何影响美国大战略的转变?当前,学术界研究威胁评估主要存在理性主义、政治心理学和社会文化三种代表性路径。文章试图构建一个美国威胁评估的新解释模式,用来考察其大战略转变的过程。文章认为,美国威胁评估的本质是决策者对外部威胁的认知,并在此基础上制定外交政策的过程,因此,以总统为首的决策者从一开始就起着关键作用。美国的威胁评估包括两个过程:一是双向互动过程,即最高领导人如何看待外部威胁,以及核心组织部门和组织成员如何看待外部威胁,这两个过程分别是自上而下和自下而上的。二是次序传递过程,即美国政府最核心的部门的威胁评估传递到外围部门,或外围部门的威胁评估塑造核心部门。双向互动和次序传递共同作用,形成了威胁评估的共识生成机制。探究这一机制,有利于我们理解2006年以来美国大战略从以打击恐怖主义为重心,转变为兼顾打击恐怖主义和应对中国崛起,再转变为以应对中国的长期战略竞争为重心的过程。

How does the United States assesses external threats?How do its threat assessments influence the transformation of America’s grand strategy?At present,there are several academic schools when it comes to the study of threat assessment,including those influenced by rationalism,political psychology,and social cultural.This article attempts to construct an explanatory mechanism to help understand how the United States assesses threat and how this pushes change in America’s grand strategy.It argues that the perceptions of decision makers regarding external threats are essential for America’s threat assessment,and that foreign policy processes are determined based on these perceptions.As such,the Unit ed States President,as the leading decision maker exerts critical influence over the whole process.In America’s assessment of threats,there are two processes to consider:first is a two-way process between political leaders and the bureaucracy,each of which form their own perceptions.The processes involved here are bottom-to-up and up-to-bottom respectively.The second is a process of the sequencing of communications.That is,core departments within the U.S.,government communicate information relevant to external threats to more peripheral departments,or alternatively the risk assessments of periphery departments could otherwise mold those of core departments.These two-way processes and sequential communications both play a role in influencing the ultimate emergence of a consensus with respect to threat assessment.Researching these mechanisms is useful for our understanding of the changes in American grand strategy since 2006,which has shifted from a single focus on the war on terror,to a dual focus on both countering terrorism as well as responding to the rise of China,and a more recent change towards long term strategic competition with China as the top priority.