由认知分歧到合作共识:中俄“一带一盟”对接合作研究——基于不对称性相互依赖的视角

From Perceptual Differences to Cooperative Consensus:Research on “One Belt-One Union” Cooperation,and Asymmetric Mutual Interdependence

"丝绸之路经济带"和"欧亚经济联盟"是中俄两国当今各自提出的重大发展倡议。"一带"建设能否顺利实施,很大程度上取决于俄罗斯的立场与态度。对"一带一盟"及其对接合作的认知评价,中俄学界存在不同的观点与看法。文章借助不对称性相互依赖理论,研究中俄"一带一盟"对接中的认知分歧与合作共识。文章认为,合作的不对称性是导致中俄学界对"一带一盟"产生认知分歧的根源;相互依赖则是中俄两大倡议能够融合共生而得以形成对接合作共识的根本逻辑。文章在阐释不对称性相互依赖对于分析"一带一盟"对接合作具有合理性的基础上,系统梳理了中俄对"一带一盟"不对称认知的具体表现及分歧产生的根源,解释了"一带一盟"倡议缘何能够在短期内超越认知分歧而形成对接合作共识的深层动因。对两大倡议对接后所面临问题与挑战的政策思考,可为制定"一带一盟"具体细化的合作方案提供有益启示。

The“Silk Road Economic Belt”and the“Eurasian Economic Union”are major development initiatives proposed by China and Russia respectively.Whether or not the development of the“Belt”will be successful depends to a great extent on the position and attitude of Russia.When it comes to possibilities for collaboration between these initiatives,Chinese and Russian scholars have different perspectives and points of view.This article borrows from theories of asymmetric interdependence to consider both differences and points of consensus when it comes to connections between the Belt and the Union.It argues that asymmetries are the root cause of differences with respect to“One Belt-One Union”,while interdependence is the primary logic enabling the two major initiatives to co-exist and generate points of consensus.In explaining asymmetric interdependence and its implications for the analysis of“One Belt-One Union”cooperation,this article follows a rational theoretical perspective,and systemically reviews specific examples of asymmetric perceptions and the roots of the differences that are generated.It further explains how the“One Belt-One Union”initiative might transcend these perceptual differences soon,and how a fundamental consensus might emerge towards the promotion of cooperative linkages.The article also considers issues and policy challenges that might emerge as linkages are formed between the two projects,which might be further explicated towards a detailed plan for the“One Belt-One Union”.