气候变化及人类活动对长江入海径流的影响分析

Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff variation of Yangtze River into sea

根据近20 a长江流域的降水量、地表水资源总量、入海径流量以及工农业和生活用水量、净耗水量等数据,重点分析了长江流域人类活动和气候变化对长江入海径流量的影响。结果表明:降水量是长江入海径流量的关键控制因素;流域内生活用水、工农业用水等人类活动总用水量虽然呈增加趋势,但用水过程中净耗水量基本保持不变,因此用水量的增加对长江入海径流量没有影响;水利工程中水库蓄水多为调节径流的时域分布,对最终的入海年径流量并无明显的正负效应;但是,跨流域调水活动会在一定程度上减少长江入海径流量,而且这一影响会随着未来调水量的增大而增大。

Based on the data of precipitation,total surface water resources,runoff into the sea as well as domestic,industrial and agricultural water consumption in the Yangtze River Basin in recent 20 years,this paper analyzes and discusses the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of the Yangtze River into the sea.The results show that the precipitation is the key controlling factor to the runoff of the Yangtze River into the sea.Although the total water consumption for people's livelihood,industry and agriculture in the basin has been increasing,the annual net water consumption remains unchanged.So the water consumption increase does not impact the runoff into the sea.The reservoir impoundment changes the temporal and spatial variation of water resources but has no obvious positive or negative effect on the final runoff into the sea.However,the trans-basin water diversion in the basin will change the runoff into the sea to some extent whose impact will increase with the increase of diversion water in the future.