住房公积金与居民收入分配——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究

Housing Provident Fund and Income Distribution

研究目标:住房公积金对居民收入分配的直接影响和间接影响。研究方法:本文建立了包含200组住户的中国公积金可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),主要数据是2009年城镇住户调查数据和2010年社会核算矩阵。研究发现:2010年住房公积金增加了整体可支配收入,但会降低低收入家庭的可支配收入,减少整体居民消费,减弱商品市场的需求和生产部门的总产出,进而减少居民的市场收入;住房公积金能够使得收入基尼系数和居民消费基尼系数分别增加2.06%和2.15%左右;若不考虑一般均衡因素,单纯微观数据的估算结果可能会高估5%左右。研究创新:基于微观住户数据和可计算一般均衡模型剖析住房公积金的直接影响和间接影响。研究价值:若以改良为主要改革方向,需要侧重两个方面:如何让更多低收入家庭受益,如何提高公积金对于职工的实际效用。

Research Objectives:This paper evaluates the direct and indirect impacts of HPF reformation on residential income distribution.Research Methods:This paper builds a China Housing Provident Fund Computable General Equilibrium Model(CGE)with 200 household groups,and the main data are Urban Household Survey(UHS)data in 2009 and Social Accounting Matrix(SAM)in 2010.Research Findings:In 2010,the HPF increased the whole disposable income but reduced lower income groups disposable income,and then reduced the whole residential expenditure,weakened the demand of commodity markets and total output of production sections,and reduced the residential market income.HPT increased the income and expenditure Gini coefficients by 2.06%and 2.15%respectively.The former impacts calculated by micro-data directly will be over-estimated about 5%if the general equilibrium issue is not considered.Research Innovations:This paper analyzes the direct and indirect impact of HPF based on micro household data and CGE model.Research Value:If“improvement”is taken as the main HPF reformation direction,two issues need to be taken seriously:how to create more benefits from HPF for low income groups,and how to increase the HPF s utility on employees.