2018年以来日本对朝政策变动与外交自主性

Japan's Policy Changes towards DPRK and Its Diplomatic Autonomy since 2018

冷战后在同盟体系内追随性的外交模式,长期以来在日本的对朝决策中占据上风,但日本也保持了某种程度上的自主性。一般而言,日本对朝外交的自主性主要是指为了解决两国间的具体问题(如人质绑架、历史问题等),而先于美国向朝方示好;抑或为了满足正常国家化的政治需求,不配合美方对朝缓和的动作。两者都体现出某种程度的日美不一致,但更多是立足于日本的国内因素,尚未从地区的未来架构出发提出自己的安全设想。但随着近期朝鲜半岛局势的迅速发展,日本对朝政策向"自主外交"发展的倾向大幅增强,并增添了新的内涵。此次日本对朝外交的自主性中体现了鲜明的国际政治意涵,日本从自身的国际政治处境和东北亚的地缘政治出发,做出了这一轮政策调整。其目标在于提高日本在国际社会的话语权和影响力,并营造出最有利于日本的安保环境。日本的外交不再仅仅是处于"同盟"与"自主"的狭窄缝隙的"外压反应",而开始主动思考自己的国家利益和对外战略。恐怕这个转变不会局限在对朝外交中,在未来日本的一系列外交政策中都将得到体现。

The bandwagon diplomacy in the alliance system has long prevailed in Japan s decision-making process toward the DPRK after the Cold War,but Japan has also maintained a certain degree of autonomy.In general terms,Japan s diplomatic autonomy mainly refers to its active approaching towards DPRK ahead of America,so as to settle some specific bilateral issues(such as the kidnapped Japanese issue and historical problems).In addition,Japan also sometimes did not cooperate with America s easing policy toward DPRK,in order to meet its political needs of normal nationalization.Both show some degree of inconsistency between Japan and America,but they are more based on Japan s domestic factors.With the rapid changes of international situation,Japan s tendency on diplomatic autonomy has greatly enhanced and new connotations have been added.Japan s recent diplomatic independence toward DPRK reflects distinctive international political implications.Japan s policy adjustments this time are based on its own international status and geopolitics in Northeast Asia.Japan s goal is to increase its voice and influence in the international community and create a security environment which is most conducive to Japan.Japan s diplomacy is no longer merely a“reaction to external pressure”in the narrow gap between“alliance”and“autonomy”,but begins to actively consider its own national interests and foreign strategy.This change will not only take place in diplomatic relations with DPRK but will also be reflected in a series of Japan s foreign policies in the future.