改革开放40年来中国国内生产总值核算的建立、改革和发展研究

Establishment,Reform and Development of China's GDP Accounting Over the Past 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up

从新中国建立初期到改革开放初期,中国国民经济核算的核心指标是物质产品平衡表体系的国民收入。为适应宏观经济管理的需要,20世纪80年代建立了国民账户体系的国内生产总值(GDP)核算。20世纪90年代初,GDP取代国民收入成为中国国民经济核算的核心指标。中国GDP核算从初步建立到目前的逐步成熟,经历了一系列的改革和发展,它的基本概念、基本分类、现价和不变价生产核算方法、现价和不变价使用核算方法都经历了一系列的演进。目前,仍有许多方面需要进一步改革和发展,包括居民自有住房服务价值核算方法改革、金融业核算方法改革、支出法GDP核算改革、不变价GDP核算方法改革、季度GDP核算方法改革、地区GDP核算方法改革等。本文对中国GDP核算从建立到逐步成熟的发展历程进行回顾,对中国GDP核算历史上的重大改革和发展进行梳理,对新时代中国GDP核算的进一步改革和发展进行展望。

Summary:This year marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up.Over the past 40 years,China's economic development has achieved remarkable achievements.Overall national strength has significantly improved,as have living standards.As a core indicator reflecting economic development,China's GDP plays an important role in macroeconomic decision-making.At the same time,GDP describes the miracle of China's economic development over the past 40 years and records the glorious history of China becoming the second largest economy in the world.This paper fully reviews the development of China's GDP accounting from its establishment through its gradual maturity,summarizes the major reforms and improvements in the history of China's GDP accounting and looks forward to further reforms and developments of China's GDP accounting in the new era.From the early 1950s to the early reform and opening-up period,the core indicator in China's national accounting was the national income of the MPS.National income reflects the results of production activities for material goods but does not reflect the results of production activities for non-material services.Along with the gradually deepening of reform and opening up,China's non-material service production has developed rapidly,playing an increasingly important role in the economy.To meet the needs of macroeconomic management,GDP accounting based on SNA was established in the 1980s.In contrast to national income,GDP reflects both the results of production activities for material goods and the results of production activities for non-material services and so measures the results of economic development more comprehensively.In the early days,national income and GDP were used in parallel;however,with the development of China's market economy,the importance of GDP has become more and more prominent and its position in China's national economic accounting has risen gradually.In the early 1990s,GDP replaced national income as the core indicator of China's national economic accounting.China's GDP accounting has undergone a series of reforms and development,and its concept,classifications and accounting approaches have undergone a series of evolutions.Both the standardization of GDP accounting and its consistency with international standards have continuously improved.At present,China's GDP accounting is in line with the basic principles of SNA 2008 in its concepts,scope and accounting methods.Because macroeconomic analysis and management need continuous and comparable GDP time series,the National Bureau of Statistics of China estimated historical GDP data for before the establishment of the GDP accounting system in 1985.In accordance with international practice,it is necessary to revise historical GDP data when there are major changes in the data sources or accounting approaches.Due to this principle,the historical data on China's GDP have been comprehensively and systematically revised several times according to the changes in data sources from the economic census and the reforms of accounting approaches.After more than 30 years of reform and development,China's GDP accounting has been greatly improved.However,compared to the GDP accounting practices of developed countries,there is still a gap.The rapid development of China's economy requires economic management that constantly produces new demands for statistics and GDP accounting changes,which lead to further reform and development.These changes allow China's GDP accounting to better reflect the new changes in the Chinese economy as it transforms from a high speed growth stage to a high quality development stage,and helps GDP accounting to better serve the economic and social development goals and to improve international comparability.There are still many aspects of China's GDP accounting practices that need further reform and development,including reforms on owner-occupied dwelling services estimation,financial services estimation,expenditure-based GDP estimation,GDP estimation at constant prices,quarterly GDP estimation and regional GDP estimation.This paper discusses these aspects and makes suggestions for the future reform and development of China's GDP accounting.