伊朗为什么选择汇率高估政策?

Why Does Iran Choose an Exchange Rate Overvaluation Policy?

20世纪50年代,为笼络大巴扎、富有的土地所有者及有权势的保守派,巴列维政府采用多重汇率制度,汇率升值提高了消费者和进口商的购买力。20世纪60年代初,伊朗经济陷入衰退,制造业部门逐步扩大。制造业严重依赖进口和借贷,汇率低估有利于制造业企业发展,但也也增加了制造业企业的经营成本。巴列维下台后,制造业部门逐步边缘化,维护非贸易部门利益导致20世纪80年代里亚尔汇率高估。拉夫桑贾尼执政期间,服务业部门存在的政治优势,是里亚尔汇率高估的主要原因。

In the 1950s,the Pahlavi government adopted a multi-exchange rate system for the grand bazaars,rich landowners and powerful conservatives.The appreciation of the exchange rate increased the purchasing power of consumers and importers.In the early 1960s,the Iranian economy fell into recession and the manufacturing sector gradually expanded.The manufacturing industry is heavily dependent on imports and borrowing.The undervaluation of the exchange rate is conducive to the development of manufacturing enterprises,however,it increases the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises.After the break of Pahlavi,the manufacturing sector was gradually marginalized,and maintaining the interests of the non-trade sector led to an overestimation of the Rial exchange rate in the 1980s.During the reign of Rafsanjani,the political advantage of the service sector was the main reason for the overestimation of the Rial exchange rate.