地方政府债务、地方政府投资与私人投资——基于面板VAR模型的实证分析

Local Government debt,Local Government Investment and Private Investment——Empirical Analysis based on Panel VAR Model

当前,我国地方政府债务高企,私人投资下滑严重,亟须对政策进行调整。通过建立面板VAR模型,分析地方政府债务、政府投资与私人投资之间的长短期动态均衡关系。发现地方政府债务与地方政府投资对私人投资存在显著挤出效应,私人投资处于弱势地位,易受地方政府债务和地方政府投资负面冲击。因而,未来应控制地方政府债务规模,建立常态化、透明化的地方政府债务风险监控机制,规范地方政府举债行为,把控债务增量,理顺政府投资与私人投资之间的关系,促进政府投资与私人投资优势互补,良性互动。

At present,our country local government debt is high,the private investment drops seriously,urgently needs the policy adjustment.Through the establishment of panel VAR model,this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic equilibrium relationship among local government debt,government investment and private investment.It is found that local government debt and local government investment have significant crowding out effect on private investment.Private investment is in a weak position and vulnerable to negative impact of local government debt and local government investment.Therefore,in the future,we should control the scale of local government debt,establish a regular and transparent monitoring mechanism of local government debt risk,standardize the borrowing behavior of local governments,control the increase of debt,straighten out the relationship between government investment and private investment,and promote the complementary advantages of government investment and private investment,benign interaction.