基于马尔科夫模型的异形拱肋空间线形预测

Prediction Research of Special-Shaped Arch Bridge Arch-Rib Spatial Alignment Based on Markov Model

结合马尔科夫理论和异形拱桥拱肋施工过程的特点,首次建立了针对异形拱肋空间线形精确预测的考虑残差的马尔科夫模型,导出了弱化随机误差以后的异形拱肋空间坐标计算表达式.基于该计算表达式,提出了异形拱肋空间坐标预测方法,以工程实例为背景的实验验证了该方法的实用性.对比了该方法与灰色理论预测法、Kalman滤波法和最小二乘法的计算精度,得出了异形拱桥拱肋空间线形的一般发展规律,结果显示该方法具有理想的精度和相当高的计算效率.

Combining the characteristics of Markov theory and construction process of special-shaped arch bridge arch-rib,one Markov model for the accurate prediction of the spatial alignment of a special-shaped arch rib is established for the first time,and the calculation expression is derived of the spatial coordinates of the special-shaped arch ribs following the weakening of random error.Based on the above calculation expression,a spatial coordinate prediction method is proposed for special-shaped arch ribs,and the practicability of the method is verified by an experiment based on an engineering example.The calculation accuracy of the proposed method is compared with that of grey theory prediction method,Kalman filter method and least square method,the general development law of the spatial alignment is obtained of special-shaped arch bridge arch-rib.Numerical results thus indicate that the proposed method has perfect accuracy and reasonably high efficiency.