降雪天气下城际出行方式选择影响因素分析

Influence Factors of Travel Mode Choice for Long-Distance Travel under the Snowy Weather

出行方式选择行为是交通需求预测的重要基础理论,以居民出行方式选择为研究对象,基于降雪天气下居民出行意愿调查结果,通过多项回归分析,构建多项Logistic回归模型,分别探究不同程度降雪下商务计划出行和休闲计划类出行中出行方式选择模型及影响因素。模型结果显示,大雪天气下,出行者的出行频率和职业同时显著影响商务计划出行和休闲计划出行,而出行时耗在商务计划出行中影响显著,并且驾龄和性别在休闲计划出行中影响现在;中雪天气下,出行时耗、出行频率、驾龄在商务及休闲出行计划中均影响显著,而职业显著影响商务出行计划,并且年龄显著影响休闲出行计划。而且每个因素对每个模型影响程度各异,可以为综合运输网络的交通规划、需求预测以及管理者制定决策提供理论支撑和决策依据。

The travel mode choosing behavior is an important basic theory of travel demand forecasting.Aiming at traveler’s travel mode choice,stated preference survey of expressway service area was conducted.Based on the survey results,multinomial logistic regression was done to explore influence factors and to build travel mode choice models under various levels of snow in business travel plan and leisure travel plan.The model results shown that traveler’s travel frequency and occupation had significant influences on travel mode choice models in business travel plan and leisure travel plan under the heavy snow weather.Furthermore,trip time consume had significant influences on leisure travel plan,and moreover,driving age and gender had significant influences on leisure travel plan.In addition,trip time consume,travel frequency and driving age had significant influences on both business and leisure travel plan under the moderate snow weather.Also,occupation and age had significant influences on business travel plan and leisure travel plan,respectively.Each factor affects each model differently.These can provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for traffic planning,demand forecasting and decision making of integrated transportation network.