土地财政构成要素区域差异及驱动因素研究

Regional Difference and Driving Factors of Constituent Elements of Land Finance

以土地财政构成要素为着力点,选取2005-2014年全国31省(市)土地财政构成要素与驱动因素数据,采用SPSS 21.0中的系统聚类分析方法对其关系进行聚类,并根据结果采用灰色关联分析法分区域测算土地财政构成要素与驱动因素的关联度,结果表明:1)影响土地财政构成要素区域差异的因素主要包括分税制、以GDP为标准的政绩考核体系、二三产业发展和土地违法等。2)全国范围内土地出让面积与土地财政规模、产业结构指标联系最为紧密,土地出让价格则受地区竞争程度影响最大。3)根据聚类结果,将北京、上海划入第Ⅰ区域,该区域土地出让价格与土地违法指标联系密切;江苏、浙江、山东、广东、天津、福建和辽宁划入第Ⅱ区域,中部、东北及海南划入第Ⅲ区域,Ⅱ、Ⅲ区域土地财政各构成要素主要受产业结构和城市扩张指标影响;西北五省、云南、贵州划入第Ⅳ区域,该区域地方政府财政压力影响以市场方式出让的土地面积和价格,土地违法对土地财政构成系统各要素影响最小。

This paper focuses on the constituent elements of land finance.Analysis was based on the data of the land finance elements and driving factors of 31 provinces in China recorded from 2005 to 2014.The system cluster analysis method in SPSS 21.0 was adopted to cluster the relationship.According to the result,the correlation degree between the land finance elements and the driving factors in different regions is calculated by using the gray correlation analysis method.The results show that:1)Factors affecting regional differences in land finance elements mainly include the tax federalism,the government performance appraisal system based on GDP,development of secondary/tertiary industry and violation of land laws;2)In the whole country,the land transfer areas are closely related to the land finance scales and industrial structure,while the land transfer prices are most affected by regional competitions;3)According to the cluster results,Beijing and Shanghai are assigned to ZoneⅠ.The land prices and land illegal indicators are closely related in this region.Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shandong,Guangdong,Tianjin,Fujian,and Liaoning are assigned to Zone II and Central China,Northeast China and Hainan are assigned into Zone III.The land finance elements are mainly affected by industrial structure and urban expansion indexes in these two regions.Five provinces in Northwest China,Yunnan and Guizhou are assigned to Zone IV.Local government financial pressure in the region influences the market mode of land transfer and prices.And violation of land laws has the least effects on all elements of the land financial composition system.