国家气象中心区域台风模式预报性能分析

ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF REGIONAL TYPHOON MODEL IN NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

为了更好发挥区域台风模式GRAPES_TYM在业务预报中的参考作用,利用2017年GRAPES_TYM升级版本对2014—2016年的回算结果同美国国家环境预报中心的全球模式(NCEP-GFS)以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的中期预报模式(EC-IFS)进行了对比分析。结果显示:两个全球模式的预报路径平均误差小于区域台风模式GRAPES_TYM的平均路径误差;GRAPES_TYM和NCEP-GFS的路径预报均存在明显的移向正偏差,EC-IFS移向偏差不明显;GRAPES_TYM对我国近海登陆的热带气旋120 h路径预报误差小于NCEP全球模式,同ECMWF差别不大;区域模式的强度(近地面最大风速)预报平均误差在72 h前小于两个全球模式,而三个模式在强度预报上存在明显负偏差,负偏差主要存在于25°N以南(这一区域为强台风和超强台风主要区域)。

The retrospective runs of TCs with history longer than 48 h in 2014-2016 are carried out.The track and maximum surface wind speed errors are analyzed and compared with two global models:NCEP global forecast system(NCEP-GFS)and ECMWF Integrated Forecast System(EC-IFS).The statistic results show:the mean track errors of two global models are smaller through 24~120 h forecast than these of GRAPES_TYM.There exist larger cross-track errors in NCEP-GFS and GRAPES_TYM but there are no obvious cross-track errors in EC-IFS forecast.The 120 h track errors of GRAPES_TYM are smaller than NCEP-GFS for the TCs that travelled westward or north-westward and made landfall.The mean errors of maximum surface wind speed of GRAPES_TYM are smaller than these of the other two global models before 72 h;there exist negative bias for all the three models especially in the area to the south of 25°N where many severe typhoon and super typhoon developed.