气候变化背景下广东冬种生产季气象灾害时空分布特征

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE DURING WINTER CROP GROWING SEASON IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

根据生产实践,影响广东冬种生产的主要气象灾害为寒害、干旱、低温阴雨。从程度和频度两个方面分析气候变暖前后1961—1996年与1997—2015年两个时段广东冬种生产季气象灾害变化特征。结果表明,1997年以来(气候变暖后),(1)寒害、低温阴雨均呈明显减弱趋势,为冬种生产提供了更为有利的气候条件;(2)寒害偏重发生频率明显减弱,广东大部分地区处在频率<30%的区域;(3)干旱偏重发生频率增加,其中频率>30%的区域有所增加,主要分布在粤北、潮汕、茂名和湛江等地区;(4)低温阴雨偏重发生频率明显减弱,广东大部分地区处在频率<30%的区域。

Chilling,drought and cold rainy weather are the three major meteorological disasters which,according to productive practice,influence winter cultivation in Guangdong province.The variation characteristics of meteorological disasters in winter cultivation during the two periods of before and after climate warming,which are from 1961 to 1996 and from 1997 to 2015 respectively,have been analyzed in terms of the degree and frequency of disasters.The results for the post-1997 period(after climate warming)show as follows.(1)Moderating chilling and cold rainy weather provide favorable climate condition for the winter cultivation.(2)The frequency of severer chilling has been reducing significantly.The majority of Guangdong areas are with a frequency of less than 30%.(3)The frequency of severer drought has been experiencing an increase.The number of the areas,mainly those of north Guangdong,Chaoshan,Maoming and Zhanjiang,with a frequency of more than 30%,has been increasing.(4)The frequency of severer cold rainy weather is on a significant decreasing.The majority of Guangdong areas are with a frequency of less than 30%.