中美个人收入分布函数演化的对比研究及中国预测模型模拟

Comparative Study on Evolution of Individual Income Distribution between China and the US and Simulation of Chinese Predictive Model of Evolution

通过针对中国和美国同期个人收入概率密度函数(PDFs)的演化进行对比研究发现,在中国绝大多数个体遵循修正的高斯分布(Modified Gaussian(MG)distribution),即在高斯分布的前面乘以个体收入与个体收入均值的差构成的影响因子,而在美国绝大多数个体则遵循Boltzmann-Gibbs分布函数,两个国家占总人口1%~3%的极高收入个体都遵循幂律分布;鉴于当前中国人均收入远低于美国的事实,利用财富交换动力学模型(Agent-Based Kinetic Wealth-Exchange Model,KWEM),模拟中国个人收入概率密度函数如何演化到当今美国个人收入分布的情形,模拟结果发现:随着中国社会经济的发展,个体收入积累的理想方法是实施低风险式的稳定性收益,如果增加高风险博弈性的个体收入积累模式,很容易产生社会收入不平等性,同时也会削弱中国的"中产阶级"。

A comparative investigation on individual income probability distribution function(PDFs)in same period between China and the US has been made,and we find for the majority individuals in China obey the Modified Gaussian(MG)distribution,that is Gaussian distribution multiplies a factor of the difference between individual income and mean of individual income.In the US,the majority individuals obey:Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution.A few individuals(1%~3%)obtain extremely high incomes and obey power law for both nations.Consider about the reality that the average income for the individuals in China is lower than the US by far,and the agent-based kinetic wealth-exchange model(KWEM)is used to simulate increasing process of evolutional individuals'income in China and tentatively to find the approach for common prosperity for the majority population in China.The right approach is to obtain stable benefits with low risk for the majority individuals to share the result of development of social economy in China,whereas if the investment has both high risk and high benefits,it is easy to produce social inequality and weaken the"middle class"in our society