养老保险制度城乡比较实证分析:差异性、稳定性及趋同性

Comparative Empirical Analysis of China's Urban and Rural Pension System:Difference,Stability and Convergence

养老保险制度是中国经济社会的重要保障,其城乡差异阻碍了城镇化进程。不同于通常研究的定性描述,以江西省为样本,对养老保险制度城镇子系统、农村子系统进行比较实证分析。由多元线性回归结果看,两个子系统存在显著差异性;邹参数检验表明,两个子系统构成的整体系统具有稳定性;由Logit模型结果看,城乡整体系统具有向城镇子系统发展的趋同性。这可为政府推进养老保险制度城乡整合提供有价值的借鉴。

Pension system is an important guarantee for China's economy and society.But huge difference between urban and rural pension subsystems hinders the urbanization process.Differing from current studies'qualitative description,this paper,taking Jiangxi province as a sample,makes comparative empirical analysis of urban pension subsystem and rural pension subsystem.By results of multiple linear regression,significant difference exists in the two subsystems.Form Chow test for parameter stability,the integrated system consisting of urban and rural subsystems has stability.According to Logit model,the integrated system has convergence of going toward urban subsystem.The conclusions can provide valuable reference for China’s government to promote the integration of urban and rural pension subsystems.