货币供应量对我国房地产市场的溢出效应——基于DSGE模型的仿真分析

The Association Effect between China's Real Estate Market and Monetary Supply: Based on the Simulation Analysis of DSGE Model

随着房地产市场与资本市场以及实体经济的关联度愈发紧密,探究货币供应量对房地产市场的溢出效应对于未来提高货币政策传导效率、促进经济平稳运行有着现实意义。通过构建包含房地产中间厂商的DSGE模型,探求货币供应量对房地产市场的影响机制与影响程度,为此在模型中引入货币冲击的外生冲击变量,以更好地模拟现实经济运行机制。仿真分析结果发现,货币供应量不直接影响房地产市场,主要通过利率水平下降与物价水平上升等传导路径对房地产市场产生正向冲击,并且这一间接影响期限短、程度深。为了促进房地产市场的健康发展,以研究结论为现实指导,从控制货币供应量、开发多样化金融产品和加强境外资金流入管理三方面提出针对房地产市场的监管策略。

After the reform of the housing market in 1998,the real estate Industry has developed rapidly and is closely related to various macroeconomic variables and capital markets in China.The paper first constructs the DSGE model which includes the real estate intermediary manufacturers,and then explores the influence mechanism and influence degree of the real estate Industry on the macro economy,and finally introduces the currency shock impact in the model,which can better simulate the real economic operating mechanism.The results show that there is a short-term and significant impact between the monetary policy and the real estate market,mainly in the price level,interest rates and other economic Indicators Indirectly affected.On the basis of considering the relationship between the real estate market and the macroeconomic factors,the paper puts forward the supervision strategy for the real estate market from three aspects:controlling the money supply,developing diversified financial products and strengthening the management of foreign capital inflow.