气象现代化区域发展水平评估实证研究

The Evaluation of Regional Development Level of Meteorological Modernization:An Empirical Study

利用综合指标体系评价法建立气象现代化发展水平综合评价指标体系,对2014—2016年中国气象现代化的区域发展水平开展评估。我国气象现代化发展增速逐年放缓,气象现代化进入提质增效的转型阶段。我国气象现代化发展存在区域差异,这是因为气象保障支撑能力和地方经济发展存在较为明显的相关性。气象现代化区域差异已经呈现逐年缩小的趋势,而“十三五”期间,国家大力推进城乡区域协调发展将会进一步促进气象现代化的区域协调发展。针对气象现代化发展中存在的问题,应在以下四个方面加大力度补齐短板,全面提升气象现代化水平:注重提升气象核心业务技术水平;提高气象信息化水平;加强科技创新,促进人才优先发展;发展“智慧气象”,实现地区特色气象发展。

Using Analytic Hierarchy Process,a comprehensive evaluation index system of the meteorological modernization development level has been established.On that basis,this study evaluated the regional meteorological modernization development level in China during the period of 2014-2016.The results show that the growth rate of the meteorological modernization in China is slowing year by year,the meteorological modernization in China is in its transformation stage of improving quality and efficiency.There are regional differences in the development of China's meteorological modernization,which is related to the relatively obvious correlation between the support capacity of meteorological and local economic development.The study finds that the regional differences of meteorological modernization have been rendered decreases year by year.During the period of“13th Five-year”,China will vigorously promote the regional coordinated development between urban and rural areas.This will further promote regional harmonious development of meteorological modernization.In view of existence question existing in the development of meteorological modernization,the study proposed that the following four initiatives should be intensified together as to improve meteorological modernization level:the first is to improve meteorological core professional and technical level,the second is to improve the meteorological inlormationization level,the third is to strengthen scientific and technological innovation and promote priority to the development ol talent,the last one is to promote the smart weather and realize the development ol regional characteristics.