生育政策调整背景下城市在职青年的生育意愿——基于南京、保定5类行业的调查分析

Fertility Desire of Urban Working Youth Under the Background of Fertility Policy Adjustment:Based on the Survey of 5 Industries in Nanjing and Baoding City

作为生育政策调整的重要受众群体,城市在职青年的生育意愿对其生育行为的实现以及未来生育水平的提高意义明显。研究利用2014年在南京、保定5类行业收集的1028名在职青年问卷调查数据,从意愿生育数量、性别偏好和生育目的三个维度出发,重点考察了生育政策调整背景下城市在职青年的生育意愿特征及其影响因素。研究发现,南京和保定5类行业的在职青年在理想生育子女数和意愿生育子女数上基本一致,但远高于政策意愿生育子女数;现有孩子的性别在一定程度上影响着青年夫妇的理想性别结构偏好,但在意愿性别结构偏好上,青年夫妇的"女孩偏好"强于"男孩偏好";无论出于哪种生育目的,在职青年的意愿生育子女数大多在2个左右,但意愿生育子女数不同,其二孩生育动机也不尽相同;不同城市、年龄、出生地、行业、婚姻状况、是否独生子女等因素可能会影响在职青年的二孩生育意愿。建议通过"完善生育制度,加快落实生育制度配套措施;推行生育成本社会化,降低生育成本;加强政策服务宣传,构建现代生育文化"等举措以促进全面二孩政策的真正落实。

As an important audience for the adjustment of fertility policy,the fertility desire of urban working youth has obvious significance implications for the realization of their fertility behavior and the improvement of future fertility levels.The study took advantage of date from 1028 working youths of 5 industries survey in Nanjing and Baoding in 2014,and started from the three dimensions including number,gender and purpose of fertility desire.The study focused on the fertility desire characteristics and influence factors of urban working youth in the context of fertility adjustment.This study found that the number of fertility desire and fertility ideal are basically the same in the five types of industry in Nanjing and Baoding,but it is much higher than the number of policy fertility desire.The existing children’s gender will affect the young couples’ideal gender structure preference to some extent,but in terms of preference gender structure preferences,young couples’preference for girls is stronger than boy’s preference.Regardless of the purpose of fertility desire,the number of fertility desire is mostly around 2 children,but the different number of fertility desire also have different purpose of fertility desire.Different city,age,place of birth,industry,marital status,only child or not and other factors may affect the fertility desire of the second child.It is recommended that such measures as“improve the reproductive system,accelerate the implementation of supporting measures for the fertility system,implement the socialization of fertility costs,and reduce the cost of fertility;strengthen policy services and publicize and build modern fertility culture”and to promote the real implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy.