中国第二产业债务杠杆影响因素研究

Research on the Factors Affecting the Debt Leverage of the Second Industry in China

本文首先对实体经济债务范围进行界定,指出在考察实体经济债务状况时,应把房地产业债务排除在外;第二产业债务基本能够反映实体经济的债务状况。其次,讨论影响第二产业债务杠杆率的因素。然后,运用2000~2015年28个省市的面板数据,通过固定效应模型,分析各个因素对第二产业债务杠杆率的影响,指出第二产业债务杠杆率将随着投资效率的下降、盈利水平的降低以及经济增长率下降而增长。最后,讨论研究结果的政策启示。

This paper first defines the scope of the real economy debt,and points out that when investigating the debt situation of the real economy,the debt of the real estate industry should be excluded.The second industry debt can basically reflect the debt situation of the real economy.Secondly,the factors that affect the debt leverage ratio of the second industry are discussed.Then,the use of 2000~2015,the panel data of 28 provinces,the fixed effect model,analysis of various factors on the impact of the second industry debt leverage,pointed out that the second industry leverage rate will increase with decreasing the decline in profitability,investment efficiency and economic growth rate.Finally,the policy implications of the research results are discussed.