基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的物流产业发展研究——以河南省经济增长背景为例

Development of Logistics Industry Under the Background of Economic Growth in Henan Province Based on the GM(1,1)Grey Prediction Model

以2013—2016年《河南统计年鉴》数据为原始数据,通过灰色关联分析得到物流产业与地区经济增长关系密切的结果,且货物运输量和货物周转量作为物流业的代表因素,货物运输量的变化趋势更能反映地区经济的发展情况.由于以原始货物运输量数据进行建模误差较大,故特别引入二阶弱化缓冲算子.结果表明,引入缓冲算子后的GM(1,1)模型精度明显提高,满足精度要求.同时运用该模型对2017—2019年的河南省货物运输量做出合理预测.最后结合物流发展中存在的问题,提出相应建议.

In the article,the data of Henan statistical yearbook from 2013 to 2016 is taken as the original data.The gray correlation analysis shows that the logistics industry is closely related to the regional economic growth,and we find the cargo transportation volume and cargo turnover are the representative factors of the logistics industry.The trend of cargo transportation volume better reflects the development of regional economy.Due to the large modeling error which caused by the original cargo transportation volume data,a second-order weakening buffer operator is introduced in the article.The results show that after the introduction of the buffer operator,the accuracy of GM(1,1)model is obviously improved,and the accuracy requirement is met.At the same time,the model is used to make a reasonable prediction of the cargo transportation volume of Henan province from 2017 to 2019.Finally,combined with the problems of existing in the development of logistics,the corresponding suggestions are put forward.