人口老龄化对产业结构升级的中介效应影响研究

Mediating Effects of Population Aging on Upgrading of Industrial Structure

自21世纪以来,中国"人口红利"逐渐消耗殆尽,人口老龄化势必将从消费需求和劳动力供给两个大方向来影响产业结构升级。本文选取中国1995—2015年分省份的面板数据,基于中介效应视角研究人口老龄化对中国东、中、西部地区产业结构升级的影响及其差异。实证结果表明,人口老龄化对三个地区产业结构升级都有直接的促进作用,但是加入老年消费需求、人力资本积累水平、劳动力禀赋、劳动生产率、科教占比这些中介变量后,各个地区人口老龄化对产业结构升级的中介效应存在明显差异:东部地区中介净效应为正,有利于产业结构升级;中、西部地区中介净效应为负,阻碍产业结构升级。针对区域不平衡性,国家需要做好顶层设计,科学应对人口老龄化趋势,从供给侧和需求侧来制定政策,因地制宜地发挥人口老龄化对产业结构升级的正向促进作用。

Since the 21st century,China′s′demographic dividend′has gradually been exhausted.The population aging will inevitably influence the upgrading of industrial structure from two major directions:consumer demand and labor supply.Through selecting the panel data of China′s provinces from 1995 to 2015,the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in eastern,central and western China and their differences are studied based on the perspective of mediating effects.The empirical results show that population aging has a direct role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure in the three regions,but after adding intermediary variables such as old-age consumer demand,human capital accumulation,labor endowment,labor productivity,and the ratio of science and education,there are obvious differences in the mediating effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure:the net mediating effect in eastern region is positive,which is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure;the net mediating effect in the central and western regions is negative,which hinders the upgrading of industrial structure.Imbalance of the region requires the country to make top-level design,scientifically respond to the trend of population aging,formulate policies from the supply side and the demand side,and play a positive role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure due to population aging.