异常气候对鲁西南冬小麦生产的影响

INFLUENCE OF ABNORMAL CLIMATE ON WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION IN SOUTHWEST SHANDONG PROVINCE OF CHINA

[目的]2015~2016年鲁西南出现了有史以来罕见的异常与极端低温天气。异常低温天气将对冬小麦的生长发育与产量造成显著不利影响。文章将结合2015~2016年鲁西南罕见的异常与极端低温天气,及1981~2010年历史气候资料,分析冬小麦生育期与产量因素受低温影响的程度,以期为评估极端气候事件对冬小麦生长发育的影响提供定量化依据。[方法]基于2015~2016年鲁西南地区冬小麦生育期间气象数据,结合大田调查资料,采用对比分析与数理统计方法,分析不同生育期间平均气温、积温、降水量、日照时数等对冬小麦生育期、产量因素、生长状态和农田管理措施等的影响。[结果]2015年秋季特大暴雪使农田土壤墒情增加,但强降温迫使冬小麦提前进入越冬期;由于冬前积温偏少,冬小麦分蘖数、大蘖数及次生根均偏少;2016年春季气温出现异常,冬小麦返青推迟,生长要素变化缓慢,旺苗、大蘖数和次生根均较2015年略有减少,个体生长较弱,群体长势略差,影响冬小麦产量构成;相比较积温、日照时数等气候资料,近10年冬小麦生育期间降水量变异系数较大,对冬小麦产量影响也较大;异常与极端气候事件对冬小麦田间管理的影响也较大。[结论]针对冬前强降温和持续低温过程,应采取更为科学有效的田间管理措施,以降低冬小麦可能受到的不利影响。

An unusual extreme cold weather event was observed during the period from the winter of 2015 to the spring of 2016 in the southwestern region of Shandong province of China.The cold weather event had resulted in remarkable adverse impacts on the winter wheat growth and yield in the region.This paper intended to analyze the impacts using the data about the cold weather event and the historic climate from 1981 to 2010 in the region,Based on meteorological data and field investigation data during the growing season of winter wheat in southwest of Shandong province from 2015 to 2016,it adopted the comparative analysis and mathematical statistics to analyze the influence of the average temperature,accumulated temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration during different growth periods on growth period,yield factors,growth status and agriculture management measures.The results showed that the storm snow increased the farmland soil moisture content in the fall of 2015,but the strong codling advanced winter wheat into the overwintering phase significantly.Because of the insufficient accumulated temperature,the tillering number,big tillering and secondary roots of winter wheat were decreased before winter.The temperature was abnormal in the spring of 2016,and winter wheat turn green delayed,growth factors changed slowly.The sound seedling,big tillering and secondary roots of winter wheat were all lower than that in last year.The individual growth of was weak,and the group growth was slightly deviation,which all affected the yield composition of winter wheat significantly.Comparing with accumulated temperature,sunshine duration and other climate data during winter wheat growing season,showed that the variation coefficient of precipitation was larger nearly ten years,the effect was also greater on winter wheat yield,abnormal and extreme climate events had great influence on winter wheat field management.More scientific and effective field management measures should be adopted to reduce the possible adverse effects of winter wheat on the pre-winter cooling and continuous low temperature process.