气候变化下湖北省稻谷生长期降雨量指数保险设计

DESIGN OF RICE GROWTH PERIOD RAINFALL INDEX INSURANCE IN HUBEI UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

[目的]气候变化对我国粮食生产造成巨大损失,传统农业保险存在较多问题,天气指数农业保险作为金融创新工具,成为转移农业天气风险的有力路径。[方法]文章在分析降雨量指数保险合约设计思路的基础上,依照天气指数保险合约定义,选取稻谷生长期每日降水的累积降雨量作为天气指标,采用经济—气候模型和湖北省78个县市的面板数据,按风险区域分别设计了干旱指数保险合约和暴雨灾害指数保险合约。[结果]虽然湖北省全省累积降水的影响总体是负向的,但累积降水量对稻谷单产在十堰、襄阳等干旱区域的边际影响是正向的、显著的,累积降水量在暴雨集中区域江汉平原地区、咸宁市及辖内县市,有着显著的负向影响。[结论]气候变化对粮食生产的影响显著,根据面板数据的估计结果,有必要按不同的风险区域分别设计天气指数保险合约。该文的研究在天气指数保险设计方面做出了一定的探索,进一步使天气指数保险合约成为转移农业天气风险的有力创新工具。

Climate change has caused great losses to China′s grain production,and there are many problems in traditional agricultural insurance.Weather index agricultural insurance as a financial innovation tool is becoming a powerful way to transfer agricultural weather risk.Based on the analysis of designing rainfall index insurance contract,in accordance with the definition of the weather index insurance contract,using cumulative rainfall from rice growth period daily precipitation as the weather index,the panel data of 78 counties in Hubei province and the Cobb-Douglas-Climate model,according to the regional risk,this paper designed drought index insurance contracts and the rainstorm disaster index insurance contract.Although the effect of cumulative precipitation on overall Hubei province was negative,the marginal effect of cumulative precipitation on rice yield in Shiyan,Xiangyang and other arid regions was positive and significant,and the marginal effect on the rain area in Jianghan Plain,Xianning city and its counties,had a significant negative impact.Climate change had a significant impact on grain production.According to the panel data estimation,it was necessary to design weather index insurance contracts according to different risk areas.This paper made an exploration in designing weather index insurance,which provided a powerful innovation tool to transfer the agricultural weather risk.