基于动态面板模型的全球马铃薯消费影响因素分析

Factors influencing global potato consumption based on dynamic panel model

【目的】研究影响全球主要国家马铃薯人均消费量的主要因素,为我国马铃薯主食化战略实施提供理论借鉴和参考。【方法】利用全球主要马铃薯消费国1994~2016年的面板数据,采用动态面板模型系统广义矩估计方法(SYS-GMM)对马铃薯人均消费量的影响因素进行实证分析。【结果】马铃薯及其替代品价格、经济发展水平和消费传统是马铃薯全部消费和食用消费的共同影响因素。从全球来看,马铃薯和小麦、稻米满足替代品经济特性,但就发展中国家而言并非如此。农业GDP占总GDP比重(P<0.01)和农业资源稀缺性(P<0.1)均对发达国家马铃薯消费量产生显著正向影响,但两者均对全球马铃薯人均消费影响不显著(P>0.1)。此外,消费传统也对各国马铃薯消费量产生重要影响。【建议】为更好地推进我国马铃薯主食化战略,政府应加强消费者认知教育,开发马铃薯新型消费产品,提高马铃薯消费层次,并通过建立产业扶持政策降低生产成本,以形成马铃薯市场竞争优势。

【Objective】In order to provide theoretical basis for the implementation of China’s turning potato into staple food strategy,the present study was conducted to investigate the main factors affecting the per capita consumption of potato in major countries around the world.【Method】In this paper,the panel data from 1994 to 2016 in major consumer countries of the world were used to analyze the influencing factors of the per capita consumption of potato using the dynamic panel model with system generalized moment estimation method(SYS-GMM).【Result】The results showed that potato price,substitution price,economic development level and consumption tradition were the common influencing factors for all potato consumption and food consumption.Globally,potato,wheat and rice met the economic characteristics of substitutes,but not for developing countries.Both the proportion of agricultural GDP in total GDP(P<0.01)and the scarcity of agricultural resources(P<0.1)had significant positive impact on potato consumption in developed countries,but they had no significant impact on per capita global potato consumption(P>0.1).In addition,the traditional consumption mode also had great impact on potato consumption in various countries.【Suggestion】In order to better promote the implementation of China’s turning potato into staple food strategy and form the potato market competitive advantage,the government should strengthen the consumer cognitive education,develop new potato products,rise potato consumption levels,and establish the industrial support policies to reduce production costs.