国际油气勘探研究中的竞争情报发现

Competitive Intelligence Discovery in the Research of International Petroleum Exploration

[目的/意义]2017年,中国石油进口依存度为67.4%,天然气进口依存度为39.4%,已超过国家能源安全警戒线。由于油气资源关系到国家的经济发展和国际地位,向来是充满竞争情报的领域。基于实际业务经验,提出新的竞争情报分析结果,以期情报界与油气专业领域有深层互动,为从根本上解决国家油气安全问题提供帮助。[方法/过程]基于长期业界工作经验观察到的中外勘探指导理论与勘探效果的关系;搜索全球范围内油气成因相关文献,特别分析美、俄、中东等大的产油区的实际勘探理论与效果,分析中国油气勘探的困境以及无机成因理论研究的进展。[结果/结论]指导美国油气勘探取得成功、使其由油气进口国变为出口国的真正理论可能是无机成因论,他们释放出来的有机论学说可能是假情报;指导俄罗斯石油勘探的主流理论已是无机成因理论;因体制不同,俄罗斯方面透漏出的情报是真情报。我国为突破油气资源困境,应加强无机成油论的研究与应用。

[Purpose/Significance]In 2017,China's oil import dependence was 67.4%and natural gas import dependence was 39.4%,both indexes have already exceeded the national energy security warning line.Being related to the country's economic development and international status,petroleum resources have always been an area full of competitive intelligence.A new competitive intelligence analysis result is proposed based on work experience,with a view to promote interaction between the intelligence community and the petroleum professional field and to help solve the national petroleum security problem fundamentally.[Method/Process]Based on the relationship between Chinese and foreign exploration guidance theories and exploration results observed in long-term industry work experience,after analyzing the worldwide literature on petroleum genesis,with special discussion on the actual exploration theory and effects of major petroleum producing areas in the US,Russia,and the Middle East,the research analyzes the dilemma of China's oil and gas exploration and the progress of theoretical research on inorganic genesis.[Result/Conclusion]The real theory that guides the success of US petroleum exploration and transforms it from a petroleum importing country into an exporting country may be inorganic origin,the organic origin they released may be false intelligence.The mainstream theory guiding Russian petroleum exploration is already the theory of inorganic origin.The information leaked by the Russian is true intelligence due to different systems.In order to break through the predicament of petroleum resources,China should strengthen the research and application of inorganic oil formation theory.