突发事件中意见领袖对网民的情感影响建模研究

Modeling of Sentiment Influence of Opinion Leaders on Internet Users in Emergency

[目的/意义]意见领袖和政府在突发事件中对网民的情感具有重要的调节作用,针对当前研究较少从意见领袖对网民情感影响角度定量化、可测量的研究突发事件应急响应的问题,提出一个融合网民个体情感、意见领袖和政府调节等多因素的突发事件应急响应模型。[方法/过程]采用多智能体方法(Multi-agent System,MAS),设计了主体交互规则和仿真算法,结合实际案例数据和灰色关联分析对模型有效性进行验证,并通过仿真实验分析了不同要素下网民情感的演变过程,揭示意见领袖和政府对网民情感倾向性的影响机制。[结果/结论]研究结果表明该模型可以有效对突发事件中意见领袖对网民情感的影响作用规律进行测量与分析,可以为政府认识、介入和引导突发事件网民负面情感提供量化依据。

[Purpose/Significance]Opinion leaders and government play important roles in regulating the sentiment of internet users in emergencies.While few of existed studies pay attention to the quantitative and measurable study of emergency response from the perspective of the sentiment influence of opinion leaders on internet users.Thus,we proposed an emergency response model which integrates the factors of internet users'sentiment,opinion leaders and the regulation of government.[Method/Process]Firstly,we used the method of Multi-agent System(MAS)to design the agents interaction rules and simulation algorithm.Then,a case study and grey incidence analysis is investigated to verify the validity of the model.Finally,the simulation experiments were conducted to analyze the evolutionary process of internet users'sentiment under different factors,and the influential mechanism of opinion leaders and government on internet users'sentiment orientation is revealed.[Result/Conclusion]Results show that the model proposed in this paper can not only measure and analyze the effects of opinion leaders on internet users'sentiment,but also provide quantitative basis for the government to recognize,intervene and guide the negative emotion of internet users in emergency.