循证经济学的逻辑推演、范式变革与发展前景

The Logical Deduction, Paradigm Change and Development Prospect of Evidence-based Economics

经济学的研究本质就是证据生产和证据传播的过程。近年来,各类决策者尤其是政策制定者如何获取、评价、转化、应用高质量的最佳证据进行循证决策成为经济学实践领域关注的重点。文章基于循证理念和方法应用于经济学的逻辑推演,从基本概念、研究内容、实践框架及方法运用等方面构建了循证经济学的基本范式,最后分析其研究现状和应用前景。研究认为:循证方法应用于经济学领域的研究虽逐年增多,但其研究过程仍不够科学,规范性不足,循证经济学的发展尚处于探索阶段;循证经济学的研究有着广泛的现实需求和应用前景,在研究者、实践者、实践对象和管理者四位一体的驱动下,由最佳证据组成的证据链机制将有力地推动循证经济学在科学研究、循证决策和实践应用中的发展。

The study of economics is essentially the process of evidence production and evidence dissemination.In recent years,various decision makers,especially policy makers,have acquired,evaluated,transformed,and applied high-quality evidence to make evidence-based policy making is the focus of economic practice.Based on the evidence-based concept and evidence-based method applied to the logical deduction of economics,this paper constructs the basic paradigm of evidence-based economics from the aspects of basic concepts,research content,practical framework and method application,and analyzes its research status and application prospects.The study concludes that although the application of evidence-based methods in the field of economics has increased year by year,its research steps are still not scientific or normative,and the development of evidence-based economics is still in the exploratory stage;the research of evidence-based economics has a wide range of realistic needs and application prospects.Driven by four-sphere integrated plan of researchers,managers,practitioners and the object of practice,the evidence chain mechanism consisting of best evidence will effectively promote the development of evidence-based economics in scientific research,evidence-based decision-making and practical application.