我国竞技体育与社会体育协同演化的系统动力学仿真——基于复合系统协同度模型的测度

System dynamic simulation of the coevolution of competitive sports and social sports in China——Based on the measurement of a composite system synergy degree model

立足于动态的"系统论",将竞技体育子系统与社会体育子系统的耦合协调度视为体育事业复合系统的协同演化基础,以"协同学理论"为子系统协同路径指导,运用数据建模与系统仿真方法剖析两者在协同演化进程中的有序度水平、耦合协调程度与协同演变状态,并在此动态演化性能描述的基础上,进行体育事业复合系统的仿真与协同策略调整。研究结果显示:我国竞技体育有序度水平整体呈现波动趋势,社会体育有序度水平则保持较平稳的上升趋势,且两者子系统之间具有稳定的相互依赖性,天津、河北、山西、辽宁、黑龙江和江西的体育事业复合系统处于非协同状态,其余地区处于极低水平的协同状态。系统动力学仿真结果显示,加强政府扶持与培育策略、提升社会体育组织服务承载能力策略以及加强社会监管与市场活动策略,是实现竞技体育与社会体育在理论与实践层面协同发展的有效方法。

Based on the dynamic“systematology”,the authors considered the coupling coordination degree of competitive sports subsystems and social sports subsystems as the foundation for the coevolution of sports undertaking composite systems,dissected the degree of order level,coupling coordination degree and coevolution condition of the two in the process of coevolution by basing subsystem synergy path guidance on“the synergetic theory”and by applying data model establishment and dynamic simulation methods,and on the basis of describing the performance of such dynamic evolution,adjusted the strategies for the simulation and synergy of the sports undertaking composite system.The research results show the followings:the degree of order level of competitive sports in China shows a fluctuating trend overall,the degree of order level of social sports maintains a steadily rising trend,and there is stable mutual dependence between both subsystems,the sports undertaking composite systems of Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Liaoning,Heilongjiang and Jiangxi are in a non-synergetic condition,other regions are in a extremely low level synergetic condition.System dynamic simulation results show that strengthening government supporting and cultivating strategies,enhancing social sports organization service load bearing capacity strategies,and strengthening social supervision and market activity strategies,are effective methods for realizing the synergetic development of competitive sports and social sports in terms of theory and practice.