基于PSR模型的湖南省土地利用碳排放安全评估

PSR Model-based Safety Assessment on Carbon Emission from Land-use in Hu′nan

借鉴生态安全研究思路,构建了省域土地利用碳排放安全评估指标体系,对湖南省不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应及空间格局进行实证分析,进一步明确其土地利用碳排放安全等级。结果表明:湖南省各地市土地利用碳排放安全整体水平相对较高,安全平均值为0.685 5,碳排放安全最高的是张家界市(0.771 7),最低的是娄底市(0.533 3);从安全等级上看,处于临界安全状态的是湘潭市(0.622 4)和娄底市(0.533 3),其余各市均处于亚安全状态,湖南省土地利用碳排放安全整体上并未表现出极其明显的空间差异;湖南省土地利用碳排放压力-响应模型的拟合分析表明,长沙市、株洲市、湘潭市、岳阳市、娄底市和吉首市等6个地级市为高压力高响应状态;郴州市、衡阳市、邵阳市、常德市、张家界市、益阳市、永州市和怀化市等8个地级市为低压力低响应状态。说明在新时期湖南省应充分考虑单位GDP能耗、第二产业所占比重、人均生态用地面积等主要影响因素,结合湖南省各区域土地利用碳排放安全具体特征,采取差异化的土地利用碳排放优化方式进而推动湖南省土地利用碳排放安全的整体提升。

Based on the ecological security principle,a safety indexing system to access the carbon emission from land-uses for the regions in Hunan province was constructed.It analyzed the carbon emission affected by the spatial settings of various types of land-use and classified the safety status for regions in the province.The results showed that the carbon emission in Hunan was relatively acceptable with an averaged safety score of 0.685 5.The highest score was 0.771 7 for Zhangjiajie City,and the lowest 0.533 3 for Loudi City.From the safety perspective,Xiangtan City(scored 0.622 4)and Loudi City were considered marginal,while the rest semi-secure.Spatial setting on land-use did not seem to be a significant factor on the scoring.The PSR model indicated that the 6 cities induding Changsha,Zhuzhou,Xiangtan,Yueyang,Loudi and Jishou belonged to the high-stress-high-response class,whereas,the 8 cities of Chunzhou,Hengyang,Shaoyang,Changde,Zhangjiajie,Yiyang,Yongzhou and Huaihua the low-stress-low-response category.Realizing the disparities,the safety issue involving carbon emissions from land-use should be a critical criterion in planning the future development for different localities.By combining it with other factors for consideration,such as per GDP energy consumption,proportion of secondary industries,and per capita ecological use of land,an optimized design could be formulated to achieve the most desirable and sustainable outcome for a targeted city or region.