我国天然气需求实证分析

An empirical analysis of the demand of natural gas in China

本文采用美国计量软件Stata 13.0建立天然气需求计量模型,对我国天然气消费量与GDP、人口和产业等参数的相关性进行分析,进而研究了第二产业天然气消费与城镇燃气、工业燃气、发电用气、化工燃气的关系,得到了GDP是影响我国天然气消费量的重要因素、我国天然气消费增长率与第二产业天然气消费增长率高度正相关等重要认识。在此基础上,对我国2025年和2030年天然气需求量进行了预测,分别为3 406亿m3和4 352亿m3。鉴于我国天然气供需缺口加大的趋势,提出多措并举,加大天然气产供储销体系建设和能源替代等改革发展的建议。

This article uses the United States metrology software Stata 13.0 to establish a gas demand measurement model,and analyzes the correlation between China s natural gas consumption and GDP,population and industry parameters,and then studies the relationship between the second industry natural gas consumption and urban gas,industrial gas,power generation gas and chemical natural gas consumption.Important recognitions have been received that GDP is an important factor affecting China s natural gas consumption,and China s natural gas consumption growth rate is highly positively correlated with the growth rate of natural gas consumption in the second industry.On this basis,China s natural gas demand in 2025 and 2030 has been forecasted to be 340.6 billion cubic meters and 435.2 billion cubic meters respectively.In view of the increasing trend of natural gas supply and demand gaps in China,proposals for reform and development of natural gas production,supply,storage and marketing system and energy substitution are proposed.