社会网络对贫困地区农户信贷违约风险的影响:抑制还是激励?

The Impact of Social Networks on Credit Default Risk of Rural Households in Underdeveloped Areas: An Inhibition or an Incentive?

本文利用2016年新疆农户调查数据,将农户信贷过程划分为信贷需求、信贷可得性和信贷违约三个阶段,通过构建三阶段联立Probit模型,识别了贫困地区农户信贷违约的影响因素。本文揭示了社会网络不仅仅影响农户的信贷需求、信贷可得性和信贷获取渠道,还通过影响农户的信贷履约行为,最终影响贫困地区农户的信贷风险,且不同类型社会网络的影响存在差异。研究表明,拥有较多个体性社会网络虽然有助于提高农户的还款能力,但会降低农户的还款意愿,降低履约率,增强信贷风险;拥有较多团体性社会网络的农户具有更强的还款能力和还款意愿,会提高履约率,降低信贷风险。个体性和团体性社会网络对信贷风险的作用还受到信用环境的影响。因此,要发展商业可持续的农村普惠金融,降低农户信贷风险,在区分不同类型社会网络影响的基础上,促进农村信用环境建设,优化农村金融生态环境。

Using Xinjiang rural households survey data in 2016,this article divides the credit process of rural households into credit demand,credit availability and credit default,and constructs a three-stage simultaneous probit model to identify the determinants of rural households'credit default in less developed areas.The study reveals that social networks not only influence farmers'credit demand,credit availability,and access to credit,but also ultimately affect rural households'credit default risk in less developed areas.The impacts of different types of social networks differ.The analysis shows that individual social networks can improve farmers'repayment ability,but it can also reduce their repayment willingness that eventually functions as an incentive for credit default of rural households.Group social networks can improve farmers'repayment capacity and their repayment willingness,thus inhibiting farmers from credit default.Besides,the credit environment can affect the impact of individual and group social networks.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the heterogeneity of different types of social networks,to promote rural credit environment construction and to improve rural financial ecological environment.