军阀形象与军阀政治症结——基于北洋时期民意调查的分析与思考

The Image of Warlords and the Crucial Reasons for the Warlord Politics: Analysis and Extended Thoughts Based on the Public Opinion Surveys in the Beiyang Period

在1922年至1924年的历次民意调查中,军阀得到平均29. 20%的支持性投票。这说明在两次直奉战争之际,民意中的军阀尚属两分,薰莸同器,并未形成整体负面形象。这并不是说军阀及军阀政治不存在问题,但其问题非尽关乎军阀个人品性之不良,而是国家制度建设出了差池。民初各根本法及配套法规标榜分权,却未处理好立法与行政的关系,尤其未处理好不同行政机关对军队的统帅权与指挥权的关系,造成亨廷顿所说的军人"合法"地参与或干预政治的制度条件,而军队的私属性质又恶化了这一局面。军阀中一些派系曾试图摆脱这种状况,实现国家统一,但因"北洋正统"观念根深蒂固,无以解套。而国民党却在苏俄和中共帮助下,通过改组,与传统政治分道扬镳,建设起一支由政党领导的有主义的军队。民意因此而改变。1926年的民意调查显示,军阀得票暴跌,国民党得票剧增。北伐最终取得推翻军阀统治的胜利,从这一时期民调中南北两方得票率的变化,可窥大概。

In the several public opinion surveys in 1922-1924,the warlords approval rating was 29.20%in average.It shows that a general negative image of warlords had not been formed despite the two wars between the Zhili and Fengtian warlords.The problem was understood due to the state building rather than warlords'personal characters.In the early Republican period,the constitution and other laws advocated the division of powers,but they did not deal with the relationship between legislation and administration well enough,so that the military could“legally”participate and intervene politics in this institutional condition.Some cliques of the warlords tried to get rid of this condition and achieve the national unity but they were too deeply trapped in their commitment to the“Beiyang orthodoxy”to reform.However,with the help of the Soviet Russia and the Chinese Communist Party,the Nationalist Party reformed itself to depart from the traditional politics and build an army led by a party devoted to its ideology.As a result,the public opinion changed.In the survey conducted in 1926,the approval rating of the warlords declined dramatically,while that of the Nationalist Party increased sharply.The victory of the Northern Expedition thus was foreshadowed by the change of public opinion surveys.