摘要
针对大坝服役可靠性影响因子具有非概率不确定特征的情况,建立了定量刻画大坝服役可靠性非概率影响因子的Info-gap模型,运用Info-gap决策理论和体积比非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法,拟定了大坝服役非概率目标可靠度。应用提出的非概率方法分析了某大坝结构服役可靠性,各功能模式可靠性分析结果说明了该方法的工程适用性,同时也验证了所拟定大坝服役非概率目标可靠度的合理性。
Aiming at the non-probabilistic characteristics of the factors influencing dam service reliability,a non-probabilistic Info-gap model is established to quantifiably describe the non-probabilistic uncertainty of the influence factors.A non-probabilistic reliability analytical method of dam service performance is proposed based on two non-probabilistic reliability measures,Info-gap decision theory and the volume ratio.Non-probabilistic target reliability indexes of dam service performance are then preliminarily determined.The proposed non-probabilistic method is used to analyze the structural service reliability of a dam.The results of the reliability analysis in various function modes demontrste the engineering applicability of the method and the varified rationality of the determined non-probabilistic target reliability as well.
作者
顾冲时
张晶梅
GU Chongshi;ZHANG Jingmei(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期1-9,共9页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601)
国家自然科学基金(51739003
51479054)
