农业现代化与农膜污染——基于福建省时间序列数据的实证分析

Agricultural Modernization and Agricultural Plastic Film Pollution——A Empirically Study Based on Time Series Data in Fujian Province

通过对福建省1992—2015年的时间序列数据进行实证分析,解释和说明福建省农业现代化与农膜使用的发展历程以及动态关系。实证结果表明,农膜使用的自我示范效应显著,农业现代化对农膜使用的带动效应稳健,农膜使用对农业现代化的规模效应递减。基于此,认为福建省农业现代化要坚持走两型农业的发展道路,并开展对农膜污染的主动防治。

Development and dynamic relationship between agricultural modernization and use of agricultural plastic film was interpreted by empirical analysis on time series data from 1992 to 2016 in Fujian Province.The empirical results showed that self-demonstration effect of use of agricultural plastic film was significant,driving effect of agricultural modernization to use of agricultural plastic film was steady,scale effect of use of agricultural plastic film to agricultural modernization was diminishing.Based on this,development of Fujian agricultural modernization must adhere to the path of energy-efficient and environment-friendly agriculture,and launch active control of agricultural plastic film pollution.