有害生物风险分析定量评估模型及其比较

Review on the quantitative assessment models for pest risk analysis and their comparison

全球化的进程使有害生物入侵问题日益严重,植物检疫工作备受重视。有害生物风险分析(pest risk analysis,PRA)是植物检疫的支撑技术之一,风险评估是其核心内容,定量评估模型的研究与应用成为近30年来该领域的热点。本文在收集、整理国内外PRA文献和相关信息的基础上,针对有害生物入侵风险半定量评估模型、定量评估模型及软件的发展进行了系统性的回顾和分析。同时,我们比较了主要模型和软件的特点、优势和局限性,归纳总结出了适用于不同起点的有害生物定量风险评估集成技术体系,并展望了我国有害生物风险分析技术的未来发展。本综述能够为我国生物入侵防控管理机构、推广部门、高等院校及科研单位提供重要的工作参考,对植物检疫工作具有理论和实践意义。

Plant quarantine has been attracting more and more attention with the development of globalization and the serious problems of pest invasion.Pest Risk Analysis(PRA)is one of the supporting technology of plant quarantine in which risk assessment is regarded as the core stage.In recent thirty years,the study and application of quantitative assessment models have become the hot spot in this field.On the basis of collection and analysis of related literatures and information relating to PRA,the development of semi-quantitative assessment models,quantitative assessment models and relevant software were systematically reviewed.Meanwhile,we showed a comparative analysis on the characteristics,advantages and limitations of the main models and software,presented an integrated technical system of quantitative risk assessment which was suitable for different initiations,and discussed the future development of PRA technology in China.This review can provide important reference for the administration,extension stations,universities and institutes.It is significant for the theory and practice of plant quarantine.