地震对基层政府信任演化的影响和作用机制——基于汶川震后三年期追踪调查数据

The Earthquake Influence and Mechanisms on Local Governments Trust——Based on Three Years Follow-up Survey Data after Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008

基于汶川震后三年期追踪调查数据,本文对基层政府信任动态演化的影响因素和作用机制进行研究,以二一期和三二期基层政府信任差为因变量,建构两个回归模型,对"个体和社区社会资本影响基层政府信任落差"进行检验,发现三期数据的基层政府信任存在显著性差异,二一期模型中的"干部网规模"以及三二期模型中的"关系网规模""关系网职业声望""关系网密度"分别对基层政府信任年度落差存在正向、正向、负向、正向的显著影响。可见,在灾后重建时期,基层政府信任的年度落差主要受个体社会资本影响,重建完成时期则受个体社会资本和社区社会资本的共同影响。

Based on three years follow-up survey data gathered after Wenchuan earthquake in 2008,this study explores factors and mechanism which affect the dynamic evolution of trusting local governments.By constructing two regression models,it tests how individual and community social capital affect the trust gap between local governments with trust D-value of trusting local governments between different stages as dependent variables.Analytical results show three findings.Firstly,the trust of local governments at three stages have significant differences.Secondly,in the post-disaster reconstruction period,″the scale of cadre network″has significant positive impact on the annual D-value of trusting local governments.Lastly,when the reconstruction finished,″the scale of the guanxi network″,″occupation reputation of network″and″network density″have positive,negative and positive impact on D-value of trusting local governments.Thus,during the reconstruction period,the trust of local governments is mainly affected by individual social capital while both individual and community social capital affect the trust of local governments after reconstruction finishes.