无再入观测弹道导弹气动参数和落点联合预报

Joint Prediction of Aerodynamic Parameters and Impact Point of Ballistic Missile Without Reentry Observation

在无再入观测数据条件下,为了对弹道导弹的落点和气动阻力参数进行高精度联合预报,基于导弹末端速度变化范围的限制,预估气动阻力参数变化范围;将气动阻力参数作为随机过程建模并增广为目标的状态,基于无迹变换法建立了考虑气动阻力、地球自转和J2摄动的落点预报和误差分析模型,计算了落点误差散布椭圆。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效预估气动阻力参数范围,显著提高了落点预报和误差分析的精度(尤其是落地时刻),对于导弹早期预警具有较高应用价值。

In order to accurately predict the aerodynamic parameters and impact point of ballistic missile under the conditions of non-reentry observation data,the range of aerodynamic drag parameter was predicted based on the limit of the range of terminal velocity of missile,and then the aerodynamic drag parameter was modeled as a stochastic process and augmented to the state of target.The model of impact point prediction and error analysis considering the aerodynamic drag,the earth rotation and the J 2 perturbation,was established based on the unscented transformation,and the dispersion ellipse of impact point error was calculated.The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the range of aerodynamic drag parameter without reentry observation.The accuracy of impact point prediction and error analysis,especially the impact time,is significantly improved.It is of high application value for early warning of ballistic missile.