基于家庭决策的震后应急庇护物需求研究

Research on the Demand Model of Post-earthquake Emergency Shelters Based on Family Decision

确定应急庇护物的需求人数是抗震救灾工作中的重要一环。基于较为成熟的家庭决策模拟分析,综合考虑工程因素与家庭社会经济属性因素,提出适应我国国情的震后应急庇护物需求模型。通过易损性指数对震后建筑物进行损伤评估后,该模型在分析过程中以单个家庭作为基本单位,采用多因素合理指标来量化居民离开住所意愿和应急庇护物需求意愿,并通过相关资料统计和专家调查方法对各影响因素及其子因素进行参数赋值,从而建立相应计算公式,进而通过课题组所开发的中国地震灾害损失评估系统软件(CEDLAS),分析获得了西安市灞桥区的应急庇护物需求人数预测数据。提出的理论方法可为政府震前避难场所规划及物资准备与震后避难人员安置及物资发放提供理论依据。

The determination of human quantities of emergency shelters demand is the key of relief work in earthquake.Based on the relatively mature simulation analysis of family decision,we put forward the post-earthquake emergency shelters demand model adapted to China s national conditions,which considered all engineering factors and socio-economic attributes of family.After damage assessment of the post-earthquake buildings through the vulnerability index,the model which used the single family as the basic unit in the analysis process,adopted rational indicators of multi-factors to quantify the residents willingness to leave their homes and seek emergency shelters.According to relevant data statistics and expert investigation method,the parameters values were assigned to influencing factors as well as their sub-factors to set up the calculation formula.Based on the China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System Software(CEDLAS)developed by our research group,the predicted human quantities of emergency shelters demand of Baqiao District in Xi an were obtained.The research method of this paper can provide the theoretical reference for pre-earthquake preparation of emergency shelters and goods and materials as well as post-earthquake arrangement of sheltering people and required goods and materials.