经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响

The Influence of the Economic Status and Education Level on Urban Family's Fertility Willingness

基于2015年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据使用有序logit模型与二元Logistic模型研究城镇家庭的经济状况与教育水平对家庭生育意愿的影响,结果发现:城镇家庭的生育意愿较低;成年父母的教育水平对其意愿生育数量具有显著的负向影响,但该变量不会显著影响不想生育的概率;女性工资收入占比对男性和女性的意愿生育数量具有显著的负向影响;家庭经济地位提高将引起其意愿生育数量增多、不愿生育的概率减小;相对于男性,女性的生育意愿对各变量的反应更加敏感。笔者认为调节收入分配和发展婴幼儿照护与托管行业两个方面是提高育龄人群生育意愿的关键。

This paper uses ordered logit model and binary Logistic model to analyze the influence of economic status and education level on the urban family’s fertility intentions,based on the China General Social Survey(CGSS)data in 2015.The result shows that the urban family’s fertility willingness is low;the education level of adult has a significant negative effect on their desired birth number,but this variable does not significantly affect the probability of not wanting to bear;Female wage share has significant negative effect on both men’s and women’s desired birth number.An increase in family economic status will lead to an increase in the desired birth number and a decrease in the probability of not wanting childbearing;Relative to men,women’s fertility desire is more sensitive to each variable.Finally,the author proposes that the adjustment of income distribution and the development of infant care and child day care service industry are the two key aspects to improve urban family’s fertility willingness.