三峡蓄水后长江中游沿程河道水位的预测方法

Water level prediction method in the middle Yangtze River after water storage of the Three Gorges Dam

长江中游沿程江湖联通、水系复杂,且受三峡蓄水影响,坝下河道水沙条件发生剧变,导致航道水位预测较为困难。针对此问题,以长江中游实测资料为基础,充分考虑支流入汇和三峡蓄水后新水沙条件的影响,通过相关分析法,建立航道水位预测方法,并提出上、下荆江,城陵矶—汉口和汉口—湖口河段沿程水位的多元回归模型预测方法。经实测资料检验,绝对误差均在0. 4 m以内,能较好地提高长江中游沿程河道水位预测精度。

There are many tributaries in the middle Yangtze River,and the water system is complex.As the result of water storage of the Three Gorges,water and sand conditions under the dam have changed violently.These factors cause the difficult of water level prediction.Based on the measured data of the middle Yangtze River,we consider the tributary remittance and new water and sand conditions,and put forward the correlational analysis method and multiple regression method to forecast the river water lever of upper and lower Jingjiang reach,Chenlingji-Hankou,Hankou-Hukou reach.The method is examined by the measured data,and the absolute error is less than 0.4 m.The method can improve the water lever prediction accuracy of the middle Yangtze River.