基于均一化观测序列的京津冀地区气候变化格局分析

Analysis of Climate Change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Homogenized Observations

利用1960～2015年京津冀地区88个国家级气象站观测资料(包括日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水、日平均风速等),使用MASH(Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization)方法剔除台站迁址、仪器变更等因素所致偏差后,生成均一化的观测资料集。基于新资料集计算了各站气温、降水和凤速序列的线性趋势和Morlet小波等统计特征,分析了京津冀地区气候变化格局。结果表明:MASH方法能较准确地检测并校订观测序列中迁站、仪器变更等因素所导致的非均一性;1960～2015年期间京津冀年平均气温显著上升,上升幅度为0.261℃/10 a;降水减少,平均减少11.27 mm/10 a;风速显著减小,平均减小0.193 m s^(-1)(10 a)^(-1)。

Based on MASH-generated homogenized observation series of daily mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation and wind speed from 88 national meteorological stations in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region(BTH)during 1960-2015,we calculate the linear trends and Morlet wavelets of the time series at each station to analyze the climate change in BTH.The results suggest that the MASH method can detect and adjust discontinuities in association with changes in the locations of stations,observation instruments and surrounding environs.The annual mean temperature over the region on average has risen by 0.26°C/10 a,precipitation has decreased by 11.3 mm/10 a,and wind speed has decreased by 0.19 m s-1(10 a)-1.