中国人均预期寿命时空变化及影响因素分析

Analysis of spatio-temporal changes in life expectancy and its influencing factors in China

运用变异系数和灰色关联分析法,对中国人均预期寿命时空变化特征及影响因素的强度进行研究。结果表明:(1) 1981—2015年,我国人均预期寿命增长经历了慢—快—慢—快的四个阶段,预期寿命增长指数上升到113,其中男性上升到111,女性上升到115,男女预期寿命差距逐步增大。(2) 1990—2010年,全国31个省份人均预期寿命变异系数从0. 051降低到0. 036,预期寿命水平较低省份的增长速度明显高于较高的省份。(3)我国人均预期寿命的地域分布大体上分为东南部高预期寿命水平区、中北部中预期寿命水平区、西南部低预期寿命水平区。2010年我国人均预期寿命水平绝大多数省份处于第二级(76～80岁)和第三级(71～75岁),相对于1990年提高了两级。到2020年,我国将有北京、天津和上海3市处于第一级寿命水平(81～85岁),其余为第二和第三级预期寿命水平。影响我国省际人均预期寿命时空差异的因素是多方面的,其中最主要的是各地区的经济发展、医疗服务和医疗保障水平。

A deep understanding of characteristics and laws of the spatio-temporal changes of the per capita life expectancy in China will provide references of formulating policies and strategies for balancing the improvement of per capita life expectancy and building an all-round well-off society in China.Using the methods of coefficient of variation(CV)and gray correlation analyses,the changes of life expectancy in time and space were studied with their influencing factors.The results showed:(1)China's per capita life expectancy had 4 increasing stages of slower-faster-slower-faster from 1981 to 2015,with increasing of life expectancy indexes from 100 in 1981 to 113 in 2015.The female's indexes rose from 100 to 115,while those of male shifted from 100 to 111,respectively.This highlighted that the gap of life expectancy between men and women has gradually increased.(2)The CV in life expectancy decreased from 0.051 which was recorded in 1990 to 0.036 as of 2010 in 31 provinces,with a fact that growth rate of life expectancy in provinces with lower life expectancy was significantly higher than that of those with higher life expectancy.(3)The geographical distribution of life expectancy in China is broadly divided into the higher level in the Southeast,middle level in the North Central and lower level in the Southwest.In 2010,the average life expectancy level was at the second level(age of people estimated to be varying between 76-80 years old)and the third level(age being estimated to reach 71~75 years old),which was two levels higher than the case of the fourth level(66~70)and fifth level(60~65)recorded in 1990.It is forecasted that Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai will get into the first level(80~85 years old),and the remaining provinces will be at second and third levels of life expectancy in 2020.There are many factors that affect the spatio-temporal changes in inter-provincial life expectancy in China,and the most important ones were found to be economic development and health insurance.