欧盟的大型区域贸易协定建设对中国对外贸易的影响

Trade Effects of the EU's Mega-RTAs Construction on China

研究目标:实证评估欧盟大型区域贸易协定建设对中国贸易的影响。研究方法:构建大型可计算一般均衡模型系统,通过校准参数建立数值模型,并用反事实模拟方法进行分析。研究发现:协定都将在短期内损害中国的出口贸易,促进进口贸易,整体贸易效应为负,且贸易不平衡减少;非关税壁垒下降对中国贸易的效应明显大于关税壁垒下降;跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)对中国的贸易损害相对明显,其他协定的影响较小。研究创新:扩展了贸易协定分析的可计算一般均衡理论建模,分析了协定新规则和制度变化的贸易效应。研究价值:推动可计算一般均衡贸易政策建模与模拟方法的应用和发展,为中国应对欧盟大型区域贸易协定提供了政策借鉴。

This paper is to discover the influence of EU s Mega Regional Trade Agreements(Mega-RTAs)on China s foreign trade.Research Methods:This paper constructs a global generalized equilibrium model system,and simulates the impact of the three main EU involved Mega Regional Trade Agreements on China s trade.Research Findings:Trade agreements will damage China s export trade in the short term and promote China s import trade through trade diversion channels.The effect of non-tariff barriers reduction on China s trade is significantly greater than that of tariff barriers.The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement(TTIP)has relatively obvious trade damage to China,with less impact from the Economic Partnership Agreement(EPA)and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement(CETA).Research Innovations:This paper constructs the endogenous trade imbalance computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,and analyzes the trade effect of new agreement rules and system changes on China.Research Value:This paper helps to promote the application and development of general equilibrium modeling and simulation in the analysis of trade policy and to provide the policy reference for China to deal with the EU s Mega-RTAs.