结构演进、诱致失灵与效率补偿

Structural Evolution,Induced Failure and Efficiency Compensation

中国大规模工业化接近尾声,依赖政府干预的传统增长方式效率下降,工业化时期的诱致机制逐步失灵。通过改善结构条件、提升产业链接强度和投入产出技术效率乘数,有效率的服务业发展将推动TFP提升,为经济结构转型的成功提供动力。本文首先计算了基于消耗系数的投入产出关联强度和基于产业链接强度的技术效率乘数,以此为基础对转型效率问题给出了分析。本文进而运用反事实估计和因素分析方法研究了中国经济结构效率补偿的路径,发现消除行业要素配置扭曲可提升44%的产出。本文的基本结论是,在开放和竞争环境下,中国制造业具有自我矫正能力,而服务业尤其是金融业扭曲严重,资本和劳动要素错配制约了中国经济效率的提升;现阶段服务业的扭曲和要素错配不但很难提供效率补偿,而且还对实体部门效率提升造成了挤出;中国需要创新体制机制以消除要素配置的扭曲,推动结构优化和高质量发展。

The experience of developed economies shows that when the industrialization process enters its later stages,the proportion of industry in the economic structure will decline,and the entire economy will develop into a service-oriented model.The service industry share in OECD countries accounts for more than 70%of their economies on average.China has experienced rapid economic structural changes in recent years,and the model of economic development is undergoing changes.Since 2015,the proportion of value-added from China s service industry has exceeded 50%,the rate of urbanization has approached 60%,and the stage of rapid industrialization is coming to an end.A growth pattern dominated by urbanization and the service industry has taken shape.At the root of this economic structural change is the change in strength of the links between various sectors of the economy and the relevance of the input-output network.Relying on the production of physical products,industry has a strong upstream and downstream industrial connection,and the resulting input-output network is highly correlated.In contrast,the service industry relies on human capital for the supply of personalized services,and there are no strong upstream and downstream links.Therefore,the process of changing to a service-oriented economy is the process of weakening industrial linkages in the economic structure.Changes in structural conditions,failure of induced mechanisms,and efficiency compensation are issues that must be treated with caution in any developing country during an economic transition period.The failure of the induced mechanism in the period of large-scale industrialization will lead to a decline in efficiency improvement capability,which requires compensation in a service-based economy.Otherwise,the economy will fall into structural distortion and shock during the transformation process,hindering the achievement of high-quality development and sustainable urbanization.This paper first uses the World Input-Output Tables(WIOD)and OECD input-output data to calculate the industry-based forward-looking linkage,direct and complete consumption coefficients,and input-output multiplier-that is,all departments improve efficiency by 1%against the overall TFP.We then determine a number of characteristics such as a marked weakening of the input-output linkages in the process of changing to a service-based economy.We use counterfactual estimation and factor analysis to study the path of China s economic structural efficiency compensation by adding distortion variables to the general equilibrium model.We find that eliminating distortions in China s industry-wide factor allocation can increase output by 44%.Our basic conclusion is that in an open and competitive environment,China s manufacturing industry has self-correcting capabilities,which are basically not distorted.In contrast,the service industry,especially the financial industry,is highly distorted,and capital and labor factors are incorrectly formulated to develop China s economic efficiency.At this stage,it is difficult to provide efficiency compensation for service industry distortion and factor mismatch,both of which squeeze out the efficiency of the physical sector.At present,the new conditions and forces reshaping China s path of growth are intertwined with the accumulated problems of the industrialization period,in addition to some essential problems from the transition period.In this regard,our basic understanding is that the structural deceleration of China and the new economic normal at this stage have occurred in the context of the gradual disappearance of large-scale industrialization incentives.The“extreme state”of the failure of the induced mechanism and the inefficient expansion of the service industry have strengthened structural distortion during the transition period and squeezed out the efficiency of the industrial sector.China needs innovative institutional mechanisms to eliminate the distortion of service industry development and factor allocation,stimulate the efficiency compensation potential of structural service and urbanization,and promote high-quality development.