我国系统性金融风险与房地产市场的关联、传染途径及对策

The Relationship Between Systemic Financial Risks and Real Estate Market in China,the Risk Contagion Ways and the Relevant Countermeasures

本文首先阐述了当前我国防范系统性金融风险的重大意义,其次从理论视角和我国实际阐明了房地产市场应成为系统性金融风险重要监测领域的原因,并从房地产部门与银行体系的关联性、房地产部门与地方政府债务的关联性以及高房价已形成资本外逃压力三个方面进行了深入分析,说明了我国系统性金融风险与房地产市场存在密切关联。最后,探讨了我国系统性金融风险经由房地产市场传染的三种途径,并提出了由表及里防范该风险的对策建议。

The paper firstly explains the great significance of preventing systemic financial risks in present China,and then explores the reasons for the real estate market to become an important monitoring field of systemic financial risks both from theoretical perspective and China s reality.Based on these discussions,this paper makes an in-depth analysis from three aspects:correlation between real estate market and the banking system,correlation between real estate market and local government debt,and capital flight stress caused by high housing price.The results indicate that real estate market is closely linked to the systemic risks in China s financial system.The paper then discusses three contagion ways of systemic financial risks in China which disperse from real estate market to the other fields.Finally,it puts forward some countermeasures to prevent the risks from the outside to the inside.