改革开放40年中国的产业发展与工业化进程

China's Industrial Development and Industrialization Process during the 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up

本文从产业成长、产业结构、产业政策等视角分析了改革开放40年中国的产业发展和工业化的成就,概括了工业化"中国方案"中的逻辑和经验。从产业成长看,本文通过数据和事实分析认为,改革开放40年,中国的基本经济国情已经从一个落后的农业大国转变为一个工业大国,"工业大国"、"大而不强"是中国的最基本经济国情;从工业化进程看,改革开放40年,总体上中国的工业化进程从初期阶段快速地发展到工业化后期阶段,到2020年中国将基本实现工业化、2035年全面实现工业化,但中国产业发展和工业化进程存在着发展不平衡不充分问题;从产业结构演进看,可以将中国产业发展和工业化进程按照市场化改革划分为市场经济方向探索、市场经济构建完善、市场经济建设新时代三个大的阶段,通过对各个阶段中制度变革、要素流动、结构升级、技术进步等方面的分析,刻画出40年中国产业发展和工业化进程的动力;从产业政策看,中国正确处理了政府与市场的关系,产业政策总体上是成功的,在产业政策操作层面努力做到政府在一定程度上干预资源配置但又要尽量避免直接介入资源配置,这个"度"总体把握相对合理。归结起来,工业化"中国方案"的核心经验是:正确处理改革、发展与稳定的关系,"稳中求进"保证产业持续成长和工业化进程持续深化;正确处理政府与市场的关系,不断提高产业效率和促进产业迈向高端化;正确处理中央政府与地方政府的关系,促进产业合理布局和区域协调发展;正确处理市场化与工业化的关系,培育全面持续的产业发展动力机制;正确处理全球化与工业化的关系,形成全面开放发展的现代化产业体系;正确处理城市化与工业化的关系,促进产业和人口集聚效率提升与社会民生协调发展。

From the perspective of industrial growth,industrial structure and industrial policy,this paper analyzes the achievements of industrial development and industrialization in China during the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,and summarizes the logic and experience of“China Programme”for industrialization.From the perspective of industrial growth and based on the data and the fact analysis,we argue that China’s basic economic condition has transformed itself from a backward agricultural power into an industrial power,and China’s most basic economic situation is a big and weak industrial power during the past 40 years of reform and opening-up.From the point of view of industrialization,the process of industrialization in China has developed rapidly from the early stage to the later stage of industrialization.China will be basically industrializing by 2020,and will be fully industrialized by 2035.However,it has the problem of unbalanced development and insufficient development in China’s industrial development and industrialization process.In terms of industrial structure evolution and according to the market-oriented reform,the process of industrial development and industrialization in China can be divided into three stages,including exploring the market economy,building a sound market economy,entering the new era of the construction of market economy.Through the analysis of institutional change,factor flow,structural upgrading,technological progress at the respective stages,the motive force of China’s industrial development and industrialization in 40 years is depicted.In terms of industrial policy,China has dealt with the government’s relationship with the market correctly,and so the industrial policy has been successful overall,and in the level of industrial policy operations,tries the efforts to intervene in resource allocation to a certain extent by the government,and also avoids direct involvement in resource allocation in which the general grasp of such degree is relatively reasonable.In all,the central experience of“China Programme”for industrialization is as follows.First,deals with the relationship among reform,development and stability properly,and ensures the continuous growth of the industries and the deepening of the industrialization process.Second,deals with the relationship between the market and the government properly,and continuously improves industrial efficiency and promotes industry development to high-end.Third,correctly deals with the relationship between the central government and local governments,and promotes the rational layout of industries and the coordinated development of the regions.Fourth,correctly deals with the relationship between marketization and industrialization,and fosters a comprehensive and sustained dynamic mechanism of industrial development.Fifth,correctly deals with the relationship between globalization and industrialization,and forms a modern industrial system with the character of comprehensive,opening and developing.Sixth,correctly deals with the relationship between urbanization and industrialization,and promotes the improvement of industrial and population-gathering efficiency and coordinated development of society and people’s livelihood.