“减碳”政策制约了中国企业出口吗

Does the Policy of “Reducing Carbon” Restrict the Export of Chinese Enterprises

本文就中国政府2011年开始实施的《万家企业节能低碳行动实施方案》(简称"减碳"政策)对中国制造业企业出口的影响进行分析,发现"减碳"政策的实施对中国制造业企业出口存在着成本增加效应和创新促进效应,"减碳"政策对企业出口规模影响的实际效果取决于两种效应的叠加,且叠加效果会随"减碳"政策强度的变化而变化。基于中国制造业企业样本数据,对"减碳"政策与企业出口规模之间的因果关系及其机制进行了识别:(1)"减碳"政策强度与制造业企业出口规模呈倒"U"形关系,适度"减碳"政策强度下创新促进效应超过成本增加效应,促进企业出口规模扩张;(2)企业研发创新是实现"减碳"政策促进出口规模扩张的关键因素;(3)创新促进效应会随时间推移得到逐步释放,表现为促进出口规模扩张的政策区间逐步扩大。在不同样本和实证方法下,上述结论依然保持稳健。本文认为,实施适度的环境管制政策并不会有损中国企业的出口竞争力,能实现提高环境质量和出口增长的"双赢"。

This paper analyzes the impact of“the implementation plan of energy conservation and low carbon action in 10000 Enterprises”(hereinafter referred to as the policy of“reducing carbon”)implemented by the Chinese government in 2011 on the export of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.It is found that the implementation of the policy of“reducing carbon”has a cost increasing effect and an innovation promotion effect on the export of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.The actual effect of the policy of“reducing carbon”on the export scale of enterprises depends on the superposition of the two effects,and the superposition effect changes as the intensity of the policy of“reducing carbon”changes.Based on the sample data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises,this paper identifies the casual relationship between the policy of“reducing carbon”and the export scale of Chinese manufacturing enterprises and its mechanism.①The relationship between the intensity of the policy of“reducing carbon”and the export scale of Chinese manufacturing enterprises is proved to be inverted“U”-shaped.The innovation promotion effect is found to be greater than the cost increasing effect under the intensity of moderate policy of“reducing carbon”,which is more favorable to promote the export scale of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.②R&D innovation is shown to be the key factor to realize the policy of“reducing carbon”to promote the expansion of export scale.③The innovation promotion effect is illustrated to be gradually released over time,which is manifested in the gradual expansion of the policy area for expanding export scale.The results turn out to be robust under different samples and empirical methods.This paper concludes that the implementation of appropriate environmental control policies doesn’t undermine the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises,but helps to achieve a“win-win”for improving environmental quality and export growth.