我国橄榄球运动员下肢、躯干非接触性损伤风险评估的研究

A Study on the Risk Assesment about Non-Contact Injury of Lower Limbs and Trunk of Chinese Rugby Players

目的:利用Logistic回归方法建立我国橄榄球运动员下肢、躯干非接触性损伤风险方程模型,筛选预测因子,为运动损伤风险评估提供科学依据。方法:以我国现役国家队、省队橄榄球运动员为受试者,采用标准Y平衡测试(Y Balance Test,YBT)、功能性动作测试(Functional Movement screen,FMS)收集数据,并跟踪调查我国橄榄球运动员下肢与躯干非接触性损伤情况,采用Logistic回归方法筛选风险因子,建立方程,分析相关风险因子与伤病风险关系。结果:我国橄榄球运动员非撞击性损伤风险回归方程为:Logistic[P(Y=1)]=-1.639-1.492X_1-0.013X_2+2.188X_3+1.184X_4+0.118X_5+1.901X_6(X_1=性别、X_2=专项年限、X_3=运动损伤史、X_4=下肢Y测试、X_5=FMS总分、X_6=FMS测试痛、Y=损伤);回归方程模型系数综合检验中的步(step)、块(block)、模型(model)的P值均小于0.01;在拟合优度检验中,-2对数似然值(-2LL)为82.629;Cox&Snell R^2为0.381,Nagelkerke R^2为0.527;回归方程模型伤病预测准确率为89.7%,无伤病准确率为68.6%,平均准确率为82.5%。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验预测值与观测值无显著性差异(P>0.05)。下肢Y测试、运动损伤史、FMS测试痛与非撞击性损伤存在显著关联(P<0.05)。运动损伤史阳性OR值为8.913(95%CI,2.434~32.644);下肢Y测试阳性OR值为3.268(95%CI,1.038~10.290);FMS测试痛阳性OR值为6.69(95%CI,1.500~29.833)。结论:我国橄榄球运动员下肢与躯干非撞击运动损伤风险的多元逻辑回归模型拟合度好。在校正了其他因素后,下肢Y测试阳性、运动损伤史阳性、FMS测试痛阳性是我国橄榄球运动员下肢与躯干非撞击性运动损伤的重要预测因素。

Objective:In order to provide scientific basis for the injury risk assessment,we use logistic regression method to establish equation model of non-contact injury of lower limbs and trunk of Chinese rugby athletes,and to screening predictors.Methods:Subjects included rugby athlete in national and provincial teams;large sample data were collected by standard Lower Quarter Y Balance Test(LQ-YBT)(YBT),Functional Movement Screen(FMS);Non-contact injury of the lower limbs and trunk were tracked and recorded.The association between risk factors and injury risk was analyzed by logistic regression method.Results:The regression equation of Non-contact injury risk of Chinese rugby athletes is was established as:Logistic[P(Y=1)]=-1.639-1.492X1-0.013X2+2.188X3+1.184X4+0.118X5+1.901X6(X1=gender,X2=years of special sport training,X3=sports injury history,X4=LQYBT,X5=FMS score,X6=FMS test pain,Y=injury).The P values of step,block and model,were less than 0.01.In goodness of fit test,the-2 log likelihood(-2LL)values was 82.629,Cox&Snell R2 values was 0.381,and Nagelkerke R2 values was 0.527.According to the logistic regression equation model,the accuracy of predicting injury was 89.7%,the accuracy of predicting non-injury was 68.6%,the average predicting accuracy of the model was 82.5%.There was no significant difference in Hosmer and Lemeshow test(P>0.05).It was indicated that Non-contact injury has significant correlation with gender,LQ-YBT,sports injury history,and FMS test pain(P<0.05).The OR value of male was 0.225(95%CI,0.057~0.885),the positive OR value of sports injury history was 8.913(95%CI,2.434~32.644),the positive OR value of LL-YBT was 3.268(95%CI,1.038~10.290).The positive OR value of FMS test pain was 6.69(95%CI,1.500~29.833).Conclusion:the multivariate logistic regression model of Non-contact sports injury risk of lower limb and trunk of Chinese rugby players has perfect goodness of fit and high prediction accuracy of sports injury.After adjustment upon other factors,positive LL-YBT,positive sports injury history,positive FMS test pain can be considered as important predictors of Non-contact sports injury risk of lower limb and trunk of Chinese rugby players.