蝶子沟泥石流对九绵高速公路的危害分析

Analysis on the damage of diezi gully debris flow to Jiumian expressway

蝶子沟历史上曾多次发生泥石流,沟内发育大量滑坡、崩塌(滑)及沟道堆积物,而九绵高速恰由沟口穿过,且木座服务区设置于沟口堆积扇体上。因此,预测评价沟内泥石流爆发的危险性对九绵高速的防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文论述了蝶子沟泥石流的流域特征及形成条件,对蝶子沟泥石流进行危险度分析,并根据评价因子与危险范围指标的关联度建立了泥石流危险范围预测模型,进而对蝶子沟进行危险范围预测。结果表明,蝶子沟具有爆发大型泥石流的条件,危险级别为高度危险,泥石流堆积对九绵高速木座服务区构成严重威胁。

Several of large-scale old debris flows were discovered in the Diezigou with a plenty of landslides,collapse and channel deposits,while the Jiumian expressway just goes through the run out,and the Muzuo service area is located in the depositional fan.Therefore,to predict and evaluate the risk of debris flow outburst,it is of great significance for Jiumian expressway to prevent and reduce the disaster.In this paper,the characteristics and formation conditions of the Diezigou debris flow are discussed,and the risk degree of the debris flow is analyzed.According to the correlation between the evaluation factor and the index of the danger range,a prediction model of the danger range of the debris flow is established and the danger range of the Diezigou is carried out.The results show that there is a tendency for the Diezigou debris flow to be a large-scale debris flow,and the danger level is high.So the deposit zoon poses a serious threat to the Muzuo service area of Jiumian expressway.